One of the Trump administration’s biggest campaign promises – for both this presidential term and the last in 2016 – was that Donald Trump would begin deporting illegal immigrants on a massive scale. On the White House’s website, the administration has outlined the main goals of Trump’s immigration under a section titled “Make America Safe Again.”1. The website reads that Trump will “end Biden’s catch-and-release policies,”2 reinstate the “Remain in Mexico”3 policy he ran on during his first term, and build the infamous Mexican-American border “wall.” It further reads that he will “[crack] down on criminal sanctuaries” and enhance “vetting and screening of aliens.”
Trump has already signed dozens of executive orders concerning immigration and vowed to reinstate specific legislation like the Alien Enemies Act4, and has rescinded other legislation like the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Act5. Through his executive orders, Trump has set a quota for the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency, according to an article in the Washington Post on Jan. 20, to a minimum of 75 per agency. This is increasing ICE arrests to approximately 1,200-1,500 per day.
He has also passed orders detailing the improvement of security at both the northern and southern borders6 to address the “flow of illicit drugs” into the United States. Both executive orders reference the International Emergency Economic Powers Act7, the National Emergencies Act8, section 604 of the Trade Act of 19749, and section 301 of Title 3, United States Code (U.S.C.)10 as justifications for the increased regulation on immigration policies. This has prompted the administration to declare a national emergency at the southern and northern borders.
Trump has also emphasized “Clarifying the Military’s Role in Protecting the Territorial Integrity of the United States” through an executive order titled as such11. The order details the revision of the Unified Command Plan. It designates the United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM)12 as regulators of the border, as regulators of the border, pursuing a “mission to seal the borders and maintain the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security of the United States.”
Trump designated unlawful immigration as harmful to the states, which in turn inspired him to pass the “Guaranteeing the States Protection Against Invasion” order13. This notes that “the entry into the United States on or after [Jan. 20] of aliens engaged in the invasion across the southern border is detrimental to the interests of the states,” and directs that “entry into the United States of such aliens be suspended until [he issues] a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased.” As justification for these actions, Trump invoked sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA)14, along with 8 U.S.C. 1182 (f) and 1185(a)16, and section 301 of Title 3 of the U.S. Code.
Immigration and Border Security Policy Impact
Generally, it seems that the foremost concern of those supporting strict immigration policies is the economy. Trump even said during a campaign speech in Michigan in October 2024 that “…all those people that illegally come across the border with [the open border policy] are taking the African-American jobs.” Running the most extensive deportation campaign in United States history is one of his party’s leading platforms, as found in his policy handbook released by his administration in 2024. That platform was primarily based on the idea of a worsening economy due to immigrants.
This simply is not true. The United States economy is primarily and almost solely supported by immigrants, not harmed. According to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee, “Immigrants are crucial to growing the labor force and increasing economic output.” Data collected by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) estimates that by the end of Trump’s second term in 2028, gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States will drop between 1.2% and 7.4% below baseline production in response to increased deportations.
The GDP is a prime indicator of a country’s overall economic standing. According to the International Monetary Fund’s website, the GDP “measures the monetary value of final goods and services produced in a country in a given period of time.” TD Bank explains in an information page that when GDP begins to drop, “companies cut down production and minimize risk.” As a result, a domino effect starts, and production and real income decline. At the same time, unemployment will rise- this is what the United States will face if the trend of massive deportations continues into 2028.
As of 2022, the American Immigration Council analyzed U.S. Census data and found that immigrants generated approximately $1.6 trillion in economic activity, according to the Council on Foreign Relations website. Additionally, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated in July 2024 that increased immigration could generate more than $1.2 trillion in federal revenue within the next decade, primarily due to individual and payroll taxes.
The way that illegal immigration is often argued to be more harmful than helpful is in the case of state and local governments, in which costs for immigrants are estimated to be higher than revenues because, as the House Budget Committee puts it, “they have a low average education level, which results in low average earnings and tax payments. It also means a large share qualify for welfare programs, often receiving benefits on behalf of their U.S.-born children.”
This means that even though immigrants pay the same taxes as their U.S.-born counterparts, the benefits they receive from the government outweigh the amount they pay to the state government.
However, this is not a case universally delegated to only illegal immigrants. This is the same problem observed in low-income, less-educated American-born citizens. They, too, generally receive more in social programs like welfare than they pay in taxes.
In addition, as immigrants make up less and less of the workforce, it is estimated that billions of dollars in tax revenue would be lost as a result of deporting all immigrants from the United States, according to the American Immigration Council. Though most immigrants cannot benefit from programs their taxes are put into (i.e., Social Security, Medicare, unemployment insurance, etc.), they still contribute billions of dollars to such programs.
For example, in 2022 alone, immigrants contributed an estimated $22.6 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare, and because illegal immigrants cannot benefit from these programs, they are considered a net positive. This means they only contribute, not take away from, such programs.
According to economist Michael Clemens, who works for the PIIE, “[Immigrant’s] deportation will instead prompt US business owners to cut back or start fewer new businesses, in some cases shifting their investments to less labor-intensive technologies and industries, while scaling back production to reflect the loss of consumers for their goods.”
This was exemplified by the Bush and Obama administrations between 2008 and 2014, with an initiative called Secure Communities, an immigration policy rolled out on a county-by-county basis over six years. The Secure Communities initiative was unique from other similar deportation plans because it allowed economists to closely monitor the effects that the initiative had on the economy, according to the PIIE.
Economist Chloe East, an associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado Denver and a faculty research fellow for the National Bureau of Economic Research, led one team of researchers to study the measure’s impacts. In October 2023, she published her findings in the Institute of Labor Economics journal in a study named “The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement.”
East and her team found that, overall, the economy faced net negatives due to large-scale deportations under these administrations.
“Specifically, [Secure Communities] is associated with a reduction of 2.5% in the employment rates of citizen workers in the middle to high-skill group. In contrast, the effect on low-skill non-citizens in the low to middle-skill group is much larger–about a 13% reduction in employment,” according to the paper.
Unfortunately, this mass deportation effort will hurt institutions that are more significant than the economy, like schools. The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), an independent non-profit, conducted polls to determine the effect of increased deportation efforts on school attendance and, thus, funding. First of all, the KFF concluded that the stricter, more forceful measures taken by the current administration can and will contribute to “chronic absenteeism, drops in school enrollment, exacerbation of racial and/or ethnic disparities in student outcomes, and negative physical and mental health outcomes among children in immigrant families, who are predominantly U.S. born.”
Those who are in support of these immigration policies have no regard for the people who are being directly affected. However, they may start caring more once school funding takes a hit.
Texas and five other states (California, Idaho, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Missouri) use an attendance-based funding system. This means that the state uses daily average attendance to allocate school funding. According to data collected by the Children At Risk organization in Texas, approximately 30% of children in Texas are immigrants or have one or more parents who are immigrants. Houston Public Media reported on Feb. 19 that on Feb. 3, a demonstration coined “A Day Without Immigrants” was performed; about 23% – or 42,500 students – were absent just from Houston schools. And now, with the fear of documented people being deported without reason by ICE, like Kilmar Abrego Garcia, Hispanic families that account for approximately 40% of Texas’ population (U.S. Census) as a whole have reason to be concerned for their safety.
A Dallas teacher, Ryan Gonzales, said in an interview with CBS News on Jan. 23, “As a result of these fears, students are afraid to come to school. We have seen a noticeable drop in attendance this week alone.”
If this trend of Hispanic families being afraid to send their children to public school for fear of being detained and deported — even if they are in the country legally — attendance rates will continue to fall. They could be detrimental to funding for these schools. This may not have been an issue had Trump not eliminated the “Sensitive Spaces” policy, which had protected places like schools and public playgrounds.
In addition, a federal judge has recently ruled that ICE can conduct raids in places of worship. Once safe, sacred spaces can now be impeded by ICE officers, wholly disrupting the flow of worship and potentially ripping apart what were once interconnected communities.
The flow of illicit drugs from the southern border is also sold to the public as a driving factor contributing to why extreme deportation measures are being taken. However, a study published by the Cato Institute following a request filed under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) for information from Border Patrol and Security indicates that approximately 80% of individuals crossing the Mexican-American border with illegal drugs were United States citizens from June 2019 to June 2024. In addition, about 88% of drugs that were supposed to cross into the United States are caught at the border where people are entering legally, meaning the majority of drugs are not seized at illegal crossing routes, but by people entering the country legally.
“Drug trafficking organizations hire US citizens because they are guaranteed the right of entry into the United States and are subject to less scrutiny at ports than individuals without citizenship,” reads the article. This means that illegal immigrants should be the least of American citizens’ concerns- it should be other American citizens who absorb such focus.
The idea that Mexican immigrants are the sole or even merely a primary cause of drug flow into the United States is simply an asinine excuse for racism. While it is true that cartels and gangs exist and maybe even thrive in Mexico, it is both uninformed and simply untrue to say that these gangs and cartels are infiltrating the United States at unprecedented rates, and bringing with them a world of chaos and destruction at a higher volume than American citizens.
Through pushing for legislation that reinforces this false narrative, Trump is directly advocating for discrimination against Latinx people because of a perceived threat proven to be untrue. His deportation efforts have harmed innocent people who are only contributing to American society, and have given up their lives otherwise to fulfill a new one here, where they believed they had a better chance.
It is equally important to note that these same gangs and cartels that the American government preaches about being a danger to the American people are more of a threat to those living in Mexico than they have ever been to those living in America. Not only this, but America has positioned itself as a country full of opportunities open to those who wish to make a better life for themselves; they wish to fulfill the “American dream,” just as the rest of this country does. Their humanity does not stop at their nationality; America’s empathy shouldn’t stop there, either.
The George W. Bush Institute’s article on immigrants in The Catalyst in February 2017 reads, “Immigrants enter the United States with dreams of a better life for themselves and their families. Rather than posing a threat to our democracy, they reinforce and enrich the values that make America the country it is.”
Finally, it is not by coincidence that the majority of immigrants being focused on by the current administration are Mexican. Trump’s efforts to block almost all entry into the United States by migrants, and his justification for such, is scarily similar to dictators throughout history who have claimed that some group of people is tarnishing their own country, and thus should be eradicated from said country.
Trump doesn’t seem to have plans to stop at immigrants, either.
“The homegrown criminals are next. Yeah. I said, homegrowns are next. The homegrowns. You’ve got to build about five more places,” reads the transcript of Trump’s conversation with El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele.
National Public Radio (NPR) reported in April that Bukele posted in February on the social media platform X, “We are willing to take in only (including convicted U.S. citizens) into our mega-prison in exchange for a fee.” Musk and Trump both triumphed over this idea on the platform. Trump even commented, “I’d do it in a heartbeat!”
On their own, these things may seem arbitrary and unconnected to the rest of the country’s rights. However, the mere principle of denying those on American soil due process of law speaks volumes to the regard the administration has for the law at all, even if it comes to American-born citizens. The administration is currently in the process of creating a legal loophole for themselves: first, they send a citizen to El Salvador without hearings or probable cause. Once public outrage ensues, Trump claims he cannot bring the citizen back without the cooperation of CECOT – even when presented with a Supreme Court order, as is the case with Mr. Garcia – which Bukele has already adamantly denied being willing to do. Without documentation or cooperation from El Salvador, there is a very real threat to the protection of American lives, especially those already incarcerated.
All in all, these deportation efforts are bright, flashing red lights, begging the American public to pause and look at what’s happening. Maybe they are protected now, but Trump was, and always is, very intentional about what he says and does.
Laurence Tribe, a professor emeritus of constitutional law at Harvard, put it bluntly in a statement for NPR on April 16: “What that means is that literally any of us, whether we are from Venezuela or were born in the United States, whether we are immigrants or not, whether we are citizens or not, any of us is vulnerable to basically being kidnapped by masked agents of the United States government who don’t tell us why they’re picking us up, perhaps never to be seen again because we’re located somewhere in a dungeon, a prison cell, rotting away, whether it’s in El Salvador or anywhere else in the world.”
A poem titled “First They Came” was written and published by Martin Niemöller in 1946, following the rise and fall of Nazi reign in Germany. He was a well-respected Lutheran pastor in Germany. He was notably complicit in and even a proponent of Nazi ideals prior to Hitler’s rise.
It reads as follows:
First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out–because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out– because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
The United States of America needs to stand up now. There is no other option but to fall victim to the stripping of basic human decency and rights, watching it happen right in front of our eyes.
There is no waiting it out because there is no second chance. Immigrants are integral to American culture, workforce, and broader society; if this administration doesn’t need them, who else do they need? Clearly, the Supreme Court’s orders don’t mean anything at all if they go against Trump’s agenda, so what will stop him from carrying out his unlawful agenda at whatever cost necessary?
Right now, the people still have the power, so they should use it. Speak up for those who cannot speak for themselves, or who will be left to speak for you?
Footnotes
1- Make America Safe Again
2- Catch and Release (Biden era)
3- Remain in Mexico policy
4- Invocation of the Alien Enemies Act Regarding the Invasion of The United States by Tren De Aragua
5- Information on the DACA Act
6- Northern border, Southern border
7- International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)
8- International Emergency Economic Powers Act
9- National Emergencies Act
10- National Trade Act
11- Title three, code 301, U.S. Code
12- Clarifying the Military’s Role in Protecting the Territorial Integrity of the United States
13- USNORTHCOM
14- Guaranteeing the State’s Protection Against Invasion
15- Inadmissible Aliens
16- Excludable Aliens Act
